Climate finance and security in fragile and conflict-affected contexts

In this article (aimed at staff within the Canadian Governmnet’s Global Affairs Department, Bruno Charbonneau and Adam Savelli (CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security) take stock of how future research can help boost the peacebuilding potential of climate finance in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. Four research questions are developed and linked with objectives to achieve practical outcomes in the climate security finance space

The implications of climate-related mobility for human security in Bangladesh’s Ganges Delta: A scoping review

The study—part of the CGIAR Initiative: Securing the Food Systems of Asian Mega-Deltas (AMD) for Climate and Livelihood Resilience —explores the linkages between climate-related mobility and human security in Bangladesh’s Ganges Delta region. By exploring the available evidence through a systematic literature review, the results of previous literature are mapped an analyzed. We then identify evidence gaps and opportunities for future research on climate-related mobility and human security in Bangladesh

The implications of climate-related mobility for human security in Vietnam's Mekong Delta: A scoping review

The study—part of the CGIAR Initiative: Securing the Food Systems of Asian Mega-Deltas for Climate and Livelihood Resilience —explores the linkages between climate related mobility and human security in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta (VMD) region. By examining the available evidence through a systematic literature review, the results of previous studies are mapped an analyzed. Evidence gaps and opportunities for future research on climate-related mobility and human security in the VMD are then articulated

Is climate-driven migration a threat to security?

The need to understand how migration, climate and (in)security interact is becoming increasingly urgent. Climate change will continue to impact human security in the short- to medium-term, with potentially important consequences for human mobility. Over the past decade, for instance, weather-related events displaced 21.5 million people each year, more than twice as many as displacements caused by conflict and violence (UNHCR, 2021). While we must be careful not to over-securitise discourse around migration, ignoring the potential implications of these trends for both human and national security would be equally irresponsible. To give one example, research shows that for every 100,000 people displaced by floods, the probability of conflict incidence rises by approximately 3% (Ghimire, Ferreira and Dorfman, 2015). Given that flooding drove 10 million people globally from their homes in 2019, and 51% of all disaster-induced displacements between 2008 and 2018 were flood-induced, this threat is far from marginal (IDMC, 2019; IDMC, 2020)

Are climate- and peace and security-related policies coherent? A policy coherence analysis for climate security

The impacts of climate change and variability will likely be experienced in different and uneven ways depending on the different extents to which societies – and the communities within them – are exposed, vulnerable, or possess the adaptive capacity to mitigate said impacts. Certain countries, such as those located near the equator or the poles, are exposed to a rapidly changing climate to a greater degree than other countries. Furthermore, countries whose economies are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources and sectors and that face challenges in diversifying their economic base are inherently more vulnerable to climate-induced perturbations (Feitelson & Tubi, 2017). These forms of exposure can be compounded by persistent or periodically high levels of fragility – defined by the World Bank (2011) as periods when states or institutions lack the capacity, accountability, or legitimacy to mediate relations between citizen groups and between citizens and the state – which can in turn undermine the extent to which societies as a whole and certain groups within them possess the adaptive capacity to manage, absorb or mitigate climate risks. Communities that are highly dependent on climate-vulnerable livelihoods and sectors, face socio-economic and political marginalisation (therefore possessing little scope or capacity for diversification), or that are located in unstable and conflict-prone environments are far more likely to experience tangibly destabilising climatic impacts than others. As a consequence of the uneven landscape upon which climate impacts play out, climate change is therefore likely to set in motion or accelerate any number of different existing processes of change simultaneously - yet in qualitatively different ways.  

Climate change, mobility and violent conflict: a typology of interlinked pathways

Despite increased attention toward the links between climate, human mobility and conflict, the pathways through which resulting human insecurity may lead to violence are poorly understood. Although there is no inherent link between climate-related mobility and conflict, a coherent understanding of the triple nexus is needed to address the impact of intersecting crises on millions of lives and livelihoods. To achieve this, an in-depth literature review is employed to identify and explore four pathways that connect climate, human mobility and violent conflict: conflict as a result of climate-related disaster displacement, conflict as a result of scarcity-related mobility, conflict as a result of abundance-related migration, and conflict as a result of pre-existing tensions and migratory patterns interacting with climate change and/ or variability. Finally, recommendations are made to guide research, policies and programming aiming to sever the link between climate-related mobility and conflict, where it may exist

Integrated Climate Security Programming in Climate Finance: An Analysis of Multilateral Climate Funds

Conflict and climate change can be linked via several pathways which may deepen insecurity, including the erosion of livelihoods, displacement, and increased vulnerability to climate shocks. Climate finance presents a possible method to negate the links between climate change and conflict, yet questions surround the efficacy of financial mechanisms to tackle these issues. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the state of climate finance and its intersections with peace and security. The paper asks if the allocation of resources is consistent with the climate security priorities of recipient countries, and if investments in climate-vulnerable and politically fragile contexts have sufficient elements of integrated climate security programming ‒ i.e., dual climate action and peacebuilding objectives. To answer these questions, the study looks at 22 multilateral climate funds and their respective USD 28.3 billion financial allocations. Then, using an automated content analysis, the paper analyzes conflict sensitivity in projects occurring in 37 countries with a significant history of conflict compounded with high levels of climate vulnerability. The findings of the study show that there are significant gaps and lapses in the allocation of funding as well as in the operationalization of integrated climate security programming. As a result, it is argued, multilateral climate funds are exposed to unforeseen security and political risks, which can undermine the sustainability of investments. Overall, the paper generates novel insights and data on climate finance, providing actionable outputs on how to better use climate investments to support peace

Are climate and environment- and peace and security-related policy outputs coherent? A policy coherence and awareness analysis for climate security

The increasingly interconnected nature of our world means that failing to achieve coherence between climate- and peace and security-related policy domains forms a significant climate-related security risk. Poorly designed climate policies that are insensitive to pre-existing insecurities and conflict dynamics may undermine political stability, amplify social inequalities and grievances, and accelerate a loss of biodiversity and climate change-related impacts. Peace and security policies that do not account for climate risks may conversely promote ineffective and unresponsive interventions and risk locking communities into vicious cycles of insecurity and climate vulnerability. This work contributes to the climate security proofing of policy outputs by developing a methodological framework that assesses the degree to which policy outputs and strategy documents display awareness of climate-related security risks and climate peace opportunities. This framework is used to assess policies and strategies from across eight African countries. We find that despite some limited recognition of often place-specific climate-related security risks, a clear and shared conceptual understanding of the climate, peace and security nexus is generally lacking; climate and environment-related policies are generally more aware of climate security and have greater cross-sectoral engagement than peace and security-related policies; and that opportunities exist for the integration of climate security-related considerations into existing strategic priorities, instruments and programmatic activities

Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated in Senegal? A policy coherence analysis factsheet

This fact sheet assesses the coherence and climate security-sensitivity of policy and strategy documents extracted from sectors relevant to the climate, peace, and security nexus at both the national level in Senegal and regional level across West Africa

Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated in Kenya? A policy coherence analysis.

This fact sheet assesses the coherence and climate security-sensitivity of policy and strategy documents extracted from sectors relevant to the climate, peace, and security nexus at both the national level in Kenya and regional level across East Africa